Can UNC Men Make Deep NCAA Tournament Run From The First Four?

The yearly staple that has started each NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament for the last 14 years is back. And the North Carolina Tar Heels men’s basketball team is heading to Dayton to compete in the “First Four” component of March Madness on Tuesday night.

BetCarolina.com broke down each of the game winners in the starting point of the Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament and what round they reached since 2011. Only one No. 16 seed has won in the First Four then won their first-round game (others are not listed). The teams that were not No.16 teams were the last four at-large teams to receive a bid, as North Carolina is this year.

The Tar Heels face fellow No. 11 seed San Diego State in a First Four game on Tuesday (9:10 p.m. TruTV) in Dayton, Ohio, a game sure to draw heavy North Carolina sports betting action. The winner advances to play the South Region’s No. 6 seed, Mississippi, in a first-round game on Friday in Milwaukee.

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How First Four Teams Fared In NCAA Tournament

2011: No. 11 seed VCU Final Four; No. 12 Clemson first round (4 total wins after First Four)

2012: No. 12 South Florida second round; No. 14 BYU first round (1)

2013: No. 11 Saint Mary’s first round; No. 13 La Salle Sweet 16 (2)

2014: No. 11 Tennessee Sweet 16; No. 12 North Carolina State first round (2)

2015: No. 11 Dayton second round; No. 11 Mississippi first round (1)

2016: No. 11 Wichita State second round; No. 11 Michigan first round (1)

2017: No. 11 Southern California second round; No. 11 Kansas State first round (1)

2018: No. 11 Syracuse Sweet 16; No. 11 St. Bonaventure first round (2)

2019: No. 11 Arizona State first round; No. 11 Belmont first round (0)

2020: No tournament

2021: No. 11 UCLA Final Four; No. 11 Drake first round (4)

2022: No. 11 Notre Dame second round; No. 12 Indiana first round (1)

2023: No. 11 Pittsburgh second round; No. 11 Arizona State first round; No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson second round (2)

2024: No. 10 Colorado second round; No. 10 Colorado State first round (1)

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Teams that have won First Four games have gone on to win a total of 22 games after that, an average of nearly two per year.

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How First Four Teams Have Fared

Since 2011, there have been two years that finished tied for the most March Madness wins out of the teams playing in the First Four round. Virginia Commonwealth in 2011 and UCLA in 2021 both went all the way to the Final Four after participating in what amounts to a preliminary game before the field is whittled to 64 teams. Both of those teams accounted for all four wins that teams compiled after advancing out of the First Four.

What about this year’s First Four teams? UNC is a 4.5-point favorite over San Diego State at BetMGM North Carolina Sportsbook in Tuesday’s late game in the First Four. In the earlier game that night between No. 16 seeds in the East Region, Alabama State is favored by 3.5 points against St. Francis (Pa) in Dayton. For Wednesday’s First Four games, the operator lists American as a 2.5-point favorite over Mount St. Mary’s and Xavier is giving 2.5 points against Texas.

In 2013, 2014, 2018 and 2023, First Four teams accounted for two tournament wins in what many consider the “proper” field of 64 teams. That includes Sweet 16 runs for First Four winners La Salle (2013), Tennessee (2014) and Syracuse (2018). And who could forget 2023, when Fairleigh Dickinson emerged from the First Four and became the second men’s No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1, toppling Purdue in the first round of the East Region.

The only time when both at-large First Four winners lost in the first round was in 2019. A First Four winner exited in the second round in 2012, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2022 and 2024.

At bet365 North Carolina Sportsbook, the Tar Heels are listed at +3000 odds to replicate those two previous teams in the past 15 years that won five games, including the “extra” round, to reach the Final Four.

But first, head coach Hubert Davis looks to keep UNC’s season alive on Tuesday in the heart of the Buckeye State against the Aztecs.

USA Today photo by Rick Osentoski

Author

Christopher Boan

Christopher Boan is a lead writer at BetCarolina.com specializing in covering state issues. He has covered sports and sports betting in Arizona for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.