Key Takeaways
- 📈 Josh Stein is currently favored to win the NC Governor’s Race at +113.
- 📅 The 2024 general election is scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 5.
- ⏳ Voters can request an absentee ballot through Oct. 29, or they can participate in early voting, which runs from Oct. 17 to Nov. 2.
When North Carolina voters go to the polls this November, they will not just be casting a ballot for their preferred presidential candidate. They will also be selecting a new governor for the Tar Heel State.
Gov. Roy Cooper, who placed his first bet on the Carolina Hurricanes on March 11th for the launch of online North Carolina sports betting is serving his second consecutive term and cannot run for a third straight time. Seeking to replace the Democratic leader are state Attorney General Josh Stein, the Democratic candidate, and Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, the Republican nominee.
After defeating then-Gov. Pat McCrory for his first term in 2016 by a mere 10,263 votes out of more than 4.7 million ballots counted, Cooper had an easier time four years ago. He garnered a majority of the vote in 2020, beating Dan Forest by nearly 250,000 votes out of 5.5 million. Even so, it was still the second-tightest gubernatorial race in 2020.
Based on the current polling for this year’s race, a redux of 2016 is highly likely.
NC Gubernatorial Election Odds: July 2024
| Candidate | Odds | % Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Stein | +113 🔺 | 47% |
| Mark Robinson | +138 | 42% |
Josh Stein (+113) has the best odds to be the next NC governor, leading Mark Robinson (+138) in what is expected to be a tight gubernatorial race. Since you can't bet on elections in the US, BetCarolina created these hypothetical odds based on public polling.
The latest polling for the race to be the next North Carolina governor suggests that Josh Stein is leading Mark Robinson by four points (Pollster: Redfield & Wilton Strategies) and by six points (Public Policy Polling) as of July 24, 2024.
Previous Updates
In May, pollsters surveyed North Carolina voters about the 2024 gubernatorial election. Change Research conducted the most recent poll for Carolina Forward. It found Stein held a 44-43 edge over Robinson. That’s well within the 3.8% margin of error for the poll, and there’s also 9% who said they have yet to make up their minds in the race.
Earlier this month High Point University’s Survey Research Center reported Robinson had a 39-34 lead. One caveat with that poll, though, is that it questioned registered voters, whereas the Change Research survey included only “likely” voters. Cygnal also conducted a survey for the Carolina Journal that showed the two major party candidates deadlocked at 39%.
With the polls essentially tied, we’re leaning toward Stein as a slight favorite for now, but with more than five months left in the campaign, the race to be North Carolina’s next governor is far from over.
When is the 2024 NC Election for Governor?
The 2024 general election is scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 5. However, voters can request an absentee ballot through Oct. 29, or they can participate in early voting, which will run from Oct. 17 to Nov. 2.
North Carolina held its 2024 primary elections on March 5. Stein topped four challengers for the Democratic Party’s nomination and secured 69.6% of the vote. Robinson faced two other candidates on the GOP ballot and won with 64.8% support.
Can I Bet On The North Carolina Governor’s Race?
Unfortunately, betting on politics is not legal yet in the United States. That means you cannot find odds on either candidate at any of the licensed North Carolina sportsbook apps. We are offering these hypothetical odds based on the implied probability of each major party candidate winning in November.
Race For NC Governor: Latest Updates
Below you will find the latest news and developments surrounding the North Carolina Governor race.
- 📅 June 3, 2024 - Mark Robinson spoke at an event sponsored by a group against birth control and abortion. Robinson shifted his stance from banning all abortions to ban abortions after six weeks of pregnancy.
- 📅 June 1, 2024 - Josh Stein states that North Carolina can be “a state where we invest in public education, not one that slashes funding from our public schools. A state where we stand up for our fundamental rights like voting rights and women’s rights, not one that sends us back to the 1960s.”
Who Is Favored To Become The Next Governor of NC?
For now, Stein is the slightest of favorites in the race. It helps him that Cooper, a Democrat, enjoys a solid popularity rating in the state. Last month, Morning Consult reported Cooper had a 54.6% approval rating, compared to just 34.3% who do not approve. A sound economy also works in his factor, and North Carolina’s annual unemployment rate last year was 3.5%, the lowest it has been since 1999.
Josh Stein: Current Attorney General
- Party: Democratic
- Education: Bachelor of Arts, Dartmouth College; Master of Public Administration, Harvard University Kennedy School of Government; Juris doctorate, Harvard Law School
- Years In Office: Eight
Key Endorsements
As the Democratic nominee, Stein is backed by several labor and civil rights organizations. He’s also courted some law enforcement supporters through his role as attorney general. However, his biggest backer to date has been Cooper. “He’s driven by a steadfast commitment to the people of our great state,” the current governor said in his endorsement. “That’s why he’ll work to invest in students and public schools, quality health care for hardworking people, and better jobs that make life more affordable for the middle class.”
Josh Stein Odds To Win NC Governor Governor’s Race
Stein has a path to victory, and as long as Cooper remains popular and the economy keeps purring, he’ll be in good shape. He’ll need to court as many voters as he can from North Carolina’s urban centers. In 2020, Cooper won at least 60% of the vote in Asheville, Charlotte, Durham, Fayetteville, Greensboro and Raleigh.
Mark Robinson: Current Lieutenant Governor
- Party: Republican
- Education: Bachelor’s degree, History, UNC Greensboro
- Years In Office: Four
Key Endorsements
Robinson’s biggest supporter is former President Trump, who came out for him days before the March primary. The current lieutenant governor also scored the endorsement of state Sen. Phil Berger, the Republican leader in the Senate.
Mark Robinson Odds To Win NC Governor’s Race
The key for Robinson is Trump. With the former president at the top of the ticket, his best chance to win the election will be if Trump can turn out the vote in what has been a tight state in three out of the past four presidential cycles. In 2020, Trump won with 49.9% of the vote and beat President Biden by 1.3%. In 2012, Mitt Romney won the state with 50.4% of the vote, the last time either major party scored a majority in the state.
Recent NC Gubernatorial Elections
Dating back to 2000, Democratic candidates have won five of the six gubernatorial elections in North Carolina. The only Republican to win was Pat McCrory, who beat Walter Dalton with 54.6% of the vote in 2012.
While Democrats have succeeded in winning the gubernatorial race in most years, the results show Republicans have made strong gains in rural areas across the state. While Democrats will likely come out big in the state’s urban areas, the G.O.P. may score even larger wins in the rural counties.
Stay with BetCarolina.com as we track the Governor race and be sure to check out our best North Carolina sportsbook promos before you place your next wager.
NC Governor’s Race FAQ
Author
As a writer and analyst for BetCarolina.com, Steve not only covers gaming news and developments in North Carolina but also provides insights into what they mean for bettors, licensed operators and the state. A veteran journalist with 25 years of experience covering sports, politics and business, Steve has reported on the gambling industry intently over the past five years.
