The golden days of North Carolina men’s basketball might be in the rearview mirror for now. The blue-blooded ACC hardwood stalwart is in a tailspin, having lost five of eight, though Saturday's 88-82 victory at Syracuse helped the Tar Heels.
UNC (15-11 overall, 8-6 ACC) might still be on the wrong side of the bubble for the NCAA Tournament as coach Hubert Davis’ seat temperature ramps upward. If things don't turn soon, the Tar Heels could miss the field of 68 entirely for the second time in four years under Davis.
BetCarolina.com broke down some hypothetical odds on whether the Heels will make March Madness, with razor thin margins either way. Check out our NC sports betting promos as well.
Percentage Chance | Odds | |
Yes | 31.7% | +215 |
No | 68.3% | -215 |
ESPN bracket expert Joe Lunardi has UNC out of the field as of Feb. 18. He has the Tar Heels among the “first four out” category, along with VCU, Georgia and SMU. San Diego State, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Wake Forest are the final four teams on the right side of the bubble with Wake, UNC's Tobacco Road rival, being the last team in.
Much of that bracket uncertainty is due to UNC’s mediocre metrics. Ken Pomeroy lists the Tar Heels at No. 47 in his rankings, while the NCAA’s NET rankings have the Tar Heels at No. 50. According to that stats.ncaa.org metric, which could be of interest for NC sportsbooks customers, UNC is 1-10 against Quad 1 opponents with only one Quad 1 game left on the schedule, March 8 at home against Duke.
We now give North Carolina a 31.7% implied probability of making the NCAA Tournament. That would equal +215 odds of the Tar Heels making the cut come Selection Sunday. slightly better than last week's +225 odds. That’s compared with a 68.3% chance that they miss out for the first time since 2022-23 – that would translate to -215 odds at North Carolina sports betting apps.
Given the Heels’ miserable showings of late against ACC rivals Pittsburgh, Duke and Clemson, time might have run out on UNC to make the field as an at-large team in 2025. Davis’ bunch might need to run the table and beat Duke in the regular-season finale to flip the odds on their current bubble status.
Either way, that road to redemption rolls onward tonight against rival North Carolina State at 7 p.m. Eastern (ESPN) in Chapel Hill. From there, the only ranked foe left to bolster UNC’s fleeting tourney hopes is that March 8 showdown with the Blue Devils. Between those games, the Heels play Virginia (Feb. 22), at Florida State (Feb. 24), Miami (March 1) and at Virginia Tech (March 4). UNC has little breathing room as the NCAA men’s basketball season approaches its home stretch.
At Caesars North Carolina Sportsbook, No. 1 Auburn is the slight favorite to win the NCAA Tournament at +350 odds, followed by Duke (+400). The Tar Heels are at +75000 odds.
USA Today photo by Bob Donnan
Author
Christopher Boan is a lead writer at BetCarolina.com specializing in covering state issues. He has covered sports and sports betting in Arizona for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.
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