When it comes to growth, few American states have outpaced North Carolina, which saw a 9.5% jump in Census population from 2010 to 2020, with 903,905 more people arriving in the Tar Heel State over time timeframe.
Much of that growth was centered in the stateās population centers such as Charlotte, which grew by 16.3% between 2010 and 2020, while other cities like Raleigh (+82%) and Winston-Salem (+8.6%) grew at varying speeds over the same timeframe.
As a rapidly growing state, many cities in North Carolina are expected to reach impressive population increases by 2030. At BetCarolina.com, we briefly paused our North Carolina sports betting focus, gathered some of the fastest-growing cities in North Carolina, and developed exclusive odds to see if each of them will reach a certain population size in just six years.
Will Charlotte, NC Reach 1M By 2030?
Outcome | Odds | Percent Chance |
Not Reach Expectation | +100 | 50.0% |
Reach Expectation | +150 | 40.0% |
Surpass Expectation | +900 | 10.0% |
The odds in this article are exclusive to BetCarolina.com and are not available on NC sportsbook apps.
When it comes to the stateās largest city, it seems like thereās a pretty good shot that Charlotte does not exceed 1 million residents in the city limits by 2030, which would require the locale to grow by rough 125,000 in the coming years from the most recent Census population of 874,579.
Thatās why we give the odds of not hitting 1 million people the best odds, at +100, slightly ahead of the odds that the Queen City does in fact hit 1 million people by 2030 (+150) or exceeds that expectation (+900).
Will Raleigh, NC Reach 600K By 2030?
Outcome | Odds | Percent Chance |
Not Reach Expectation | -400 | 80.0% |
Reach Expectation | +600 | 14.3% |
Surpass Expectation | +1650 | 5.7% |
Up the road in the stateās capital city, the odds are pretty thin that Raleigh will eclipse 600,000 residents for the first time in 2030, which would be quite the accomplishment given the cityās current Census count of 482,295.
Still, the odds seem stacked against such an outcome for the capital city clearing that 600K milestone by 2030, with -400 odds of such an outcome not happening by the time the 2030 data is released, while the chances that Raleigh does add the more than 117,000 people needed to clear such a milestone sit at +600.
Lastly, the odds of Raleigh surpassing that 600K milestone are even longer, coming in at +1650 for the 2023 Census.
Will Winston-Salem, NC Reach 300K By 2030?
Outcome | Odds | Percent Chance |
Not Reach Expectation | -550 | 84.6% |
Reach Expectation | +900 | 10.0% |
Surpass Expectation | +1750 | 5.4% |
The home city of Wake Forest University has equally long odds of surpassing the 300K population number in 2030, with -550 odds of such an outcome not happening versus +900 odds that the college town does, in fact, hit such a number in six yearsā time.
Throw in even longer odds (+1750 to be exact) that Winston-Salem clears 300,000 residents by 2030, and you have the full range of possible outcomes for the city in coming years.
Will Leland Reach 50K By 2030?
Outcome | Odds | Percent Chance |
Not Reach Expectation | -200 | 66.7% |
Reach Expectation | +350 | 22.2% |
Surpass Expectation | +800 | 11.1% |
Right now, Leland has a Census population of 28,126, meaning itād require the city to roughly double in size over six years to hit the 50K population number, which is why we give the city long odds of doing so.
In total, Leland has -200 odds of not adding enough population to have 50,000 residents by 2030, versus +350 that they do and +800 that they add enough to clear such a benchmark by the time the 2030 Census comes around.
Will Holly Springs Reach 75K By 2030?
Outcome | Odds | Percent Chance |
Reach Expectation | +100 | 50.0% |
Not Reach Expectation | +150 | 40.0% |
Surpass Expectation | +900 | 10.0% |
Finally, you have the most evenly split odds of any NC city, as Holly Springs faces odds of +100, +150 and +900 regarding its population future, with the best odds being that the city clears the 75,000 benchmark by 2030.
Given the fact that Holly Springs had a 2020 Census population of 41,239, that says a lot about the expected growth in the city, though crazier things have happened in the booming confines of the Tar Heel State.
To that order, the odds that Holly Springs does not reach the 75K plateau in six years are slightly longer (+150), with the longest odds sitting on the city surpassing such an outcome, with those listed at +900.
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Author
Christopher Boan is a lead writer at BetCarolina.com specializing in covering state issues. He has covered sports and sports betting in Arizona for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.
