March Madness, one of the biggest sporting events of the year for viewers and North Carolina sports betting, tips off this week and it definitely has North Carolina’s attention. Four teams from the Tar Heel State are in the men’s tournament, and five are playing for the women’s title.
According to the American Gaming Association, U.S. bettors will wager $3.1 billion on the NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments over the next three weeks in the 38 states – including North Carolina – and the District of Columbia where sports betting has been legalized.
Before we started work on our brackets, BetCarolina.com – the place to find top NC sportsbook promo codes – wanted to figure out how much of that handle will be wagered in North Carolina. To come up with our estimate, we took the AGA’s forecast and devised a basic market share based on data from the states, such as North Carolina, that make handle and revenue totals public. From there, we adjusted the figures based on assumptions of college basketball interest related to other sports in each state.
March Madness NC Betting Estimate
Last week was the first anniversary of licensed sports betting’s launch in North Carolina. That freshman campaign was a huge success with $6.6 billion wagered and the state generating nearly $128 million in taxes – more than double the initial expectation.
North Carolina’s handle represented roughly 4.4% of the national total over the past 12 months. Based on that share, the state’s sportsbooks would be expected to accept about $135 million in wagers on the NCAA Tournaments.
However, we expect North Carolina to exceed that amount for several reasons. One is the Duke basketball odds, because the Blue Devils are one of the top seeds and among the favorites to win the men’s tournament. BetMGM Sportsbook has Duke as its co-favorite with the Florida Gators with odds of +350.
Duke will begin its tournament Friday in Raleigh. The Lenovo Center is hosting first- and second-round games this weekend, with fans from Florida, Connecticut, Oklahoma, Mississippi State and Baylor among those coming to town. For some of those fans, it’ll be their first opportunity to wager on their teams through such apps as bet365 NC Sportsbook, Fanatics and others.
Besides Duke, other in-state teams in the Big Dance include High Point, UNC Wilmington and North Carolina, the latter of which plays Tuesday night in a First Four matchup against San Diego State.
North Carolina’s inclusion in the men’s tournament surprised a lot of people. FanDuel North Carolina Sportsbook gives the Tar Heels odds of +650 to reach the Sweet 16 in the South Region.
Women’s NCAA Tournament In North Carolina
The state is not just hosting men’s teams. Duke, North Carolina and North Carolina State are also among the teams hosting first-round games in the women’s tournament, which take place on Friday and Saturday. We also expect those games to attract attention from North Carolina bettors as those three teams likely favored to reach the Sweet 16 and perhaps go beyond that.
High Point’s women’s team also made the NCAA tourney, as did UNC Greensboro. We have a 2025 women’s March Madness odds guide for that big event.
Because of those factors, BetCarolina expects the state’s sportsbooks to accept $210 million in wagers on the tournament in the coming weeks, much more than the expected average per state would suggest.
Tax Revenue Projections For March Madness
Forecasting the handle is one thing. Revenue and taxes are a different matter because those numbers depend on how successful bettors are with their wagers.
Sportsbooks are likely to see their win or hold rates drop if local teams fare well in the tournament or if a lot of March Madness odds favorites advance. While America loves to see upsets, especially in the early rounds of the tournament, those games typically benefit the sportsbooks. In addition, the rise of parlay wagering also help operators generate more revenue.
BetCarolina created two projections for tax revenue. One is for a low-hold scenario, which we set at 5%, in case Duke wins the men’s title. The other, set at 12%, would likely take place if there were several upsets along the way – such as the Blue Devils not advancing to the Sweet 16.
A 5% hold on $210 million is $10.5 million for the sportsbooks. With North Carolina’s 18% tax on operator revenue, that means the NCAA Tournament would create $1.89 million in funding for the state. At 12%, the books would report $25.2 million in revenue from their tournament bets. That would generate more than $4.5 million for the state’s coffers.
For Carolina Blue fans in Chapel Hill and beyond hoping that their school’s NCAA men’s hoops journey lasts beyond tonight’s First Four game, our UNC basketball odds guide gives insight on how and where you can bet on the Tar Heels.
USA Today Network photo by Grace Hollars/IndyStar
