The NFL’s franchise tag deadline came and went on Tuesday, with a handful of budding superstars getting a one-year stopgap deal to keep them with their current teams through the end of the 2024-25 league year.
Among that group this year is Carolina Panthers veteran linebacker Brian Burns, who has 46 sacks and 151 solo tackles in 80 NFL games with the franchise since getting picked in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft out of LSU.
Burns’ approximate value of 39 for his career and eight in 2023-24 make him one of the most feared defensive players in the league, though it’s worth wondering how the 25-year-old will perform next season and help the Panthers playoff chances as a tagged player.
As BetCarolina.com gets ready for the North Carolina sports betting launch, we used ProFootballReference.com to calculate the positive or negative difference between a franchise-tagged player’s season prior to and after the tag occurred. We then found the average approximate value per player of the last 3 franchise tag classes combined.
How Franchise Tagged Players Perform After Deals
Here is some information you won't find on NC betting apps. Below is how well franchise-tagged players have played in recent memory.
Can Burns Snap NFL’s Franchise Tag Woes This Season?
Over the past three classes of franchise-tagged players, a theme has emerged that few involved would like to see, as those athletes have seen drop in average approximate value of .83 AV on average over the last three years.
Of the 24 players that have been tagged between 2021 and 2023, the total lost AV was -20, with the 2023 class seeing the largest decline (-12 AV across six players), while the 2022 class had the smallest drop-off (-2 AV across eight players).
Of the franchise tag success stories, the best shining star was Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, who saw a +7 year-over-year improvement in AV (12 to 19 AV) between 2022 and 2023, with the former Heisman winner taking home his second NFL MVP trophy along the way. Throw in Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott’s +8 AV improvement, from 6 AV in 2020 to 14 AV in 2021, and you have a picture of the successes that can come after a player’s tagged.
On the flip side, the biggest drop off of late, AV-wise, among tagged players was Josh Jacobs (from 15 AV in 2022 to 6 AV in 2023), while Allen Robinson (11 AV in 2020 to 3 AV in 2021) was the next closest.
For Burns and the Panthers, the fact that the sixth-year linebacker has posted at least 8 AV per year between 2021 and 2023 should placate any worries that the tag will blow up in the franchise’s face during the league year.
For now, Carolina fans can only hope that Burns can make it back to the Pro Bowl for the first time in two years in 2025, after doing so in 2022 and 2023 for the Panthers and becoming the face of the team’s defense along the way.
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